Covid-19 Cases Forecast Using Exponential Smoothing (March 27, 2020)

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The triple exponential smoothing, also known as Holt-Winter’s Method in time series forecasting, predicts 783 accumulated cases on Friday, March 27, in the Philippines with 95% forecast interval between 738 and 827.

Point forecast for March 26 using the same model was only 13 more than the actual number of Covid-19 cases of 707 but it was within the forecast interval of 675 to 766 confirmed cases. The same forecasting method but with different computing package, table and chart displayed at the homepage, predicted accurately the actual confirmed cases of 707.

Forecasts from triple exponential smoothing, also known as Holt-Winter’s Method, for March 27, 2020 onwards; Time is in number of days starting March 5, 2020.

Based on what is displayed at the homepage using different computing package, the point forecast for Friday’s confirmed Covid-19 cases is 795 with 95% forecast interval 730-860.

In its 4:00 p.m. update, March 26, the Department of Health confirmed 707 accumulated confirmed cases of COVID-19. Death toll rose to 45 from 38. Meanwhile, only two patients have recovered from the viral disease, for a total of 28 recoveries.


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